drunkguy's NFL playoff thread

[drunkguy]

let my regular season threads go to shit when I got too busy. Hopefully I can keep this one going.

For Saturday:

Tennessee @ Baltimore

This will be my biggest play of the weekend. Baltimore is at home, has the better running game, and the better defense. Rushing and defense wins playoffs games. Those that would back TEN say that Anthony Wright can't pull it off. Let's think back a few years when Baltimore won the Superbowl on their defense alone, with a weak running game and a weak passing game. Wright has some decent receivers, but I expect Jamal Lewis to be the star of this game. If you are a trend follower (I am not), ALL the trends go in favor of Baltimore. From covers.com:

BAL 5-0 SU last 5 vs TEB
BAL 8-1 ATS last 9 vs TEN
BAL 4-1-1 ATS @ home last 6

Baltimore should be favored in this game. I also expect this total to stay way under. I would expect TEN to score at most 14 points against a very stingy BAL defense. I am waiting until gametime to play this game, because the line will go up with heavy public backing of the Titans. I expect the line to move to BAL +2 or +2.5, and the moneyline to be about +120. I am playing the total now at UNDER 39.5, because I don't think this will move up at all ( I actually played at U 40 earlier in the week).

BAL +120 (2 units)
BAL/TEN UNDER 39.5

DALLAS @ CAROLINA

Saturday will be ruled by the defenses, and I fully expect Carolina to control this game. This will be another low-scoring game, although I am hesitant to take the under at 34. Parcells has made a little talent go a long way, but Carolina is stacked defensively and I don't think Dallas will score more than 7 in this game. Steven Davis should have a decent day and eat up the clock, allowing Carolina to win. Dallas has a lack of talent on offense, and it will show in this game. Trendwise, Carolina is a bad play:

6-10 ATS this year
2-6 ATS at home
0-6 last 6 vs DAL
1-8 ATS as favorite in last 9 games

As I mentioned above, I do not handicap based on trends. However, I am less sure about this game because the DAL defense can force some turnovers which can change the tempo of the game. Regardless, I side with Carolina giving a field goal. As far as line movement, I expect this to hold at 3, but you may get a little more value (there are -3 +100 out there, and that may improve) because of public backing of Parcells.

Carolina -3
slight lean to UNDER 34.5

I like the Saturday games much more than the Sunday games, but I will update this again for the rest of the games.

 

[BigLou+]

BAL 4-1-1 ATS @ home last 6.

Historically, how do teams at home in the Wild Card round fare when they have covered the spread at home in 4 of their last 6 games? That would be a more telling statistic because it would apply to all teams, not just the 2003 Ravens.

Big Lou

 

[drunkguy]

Big Lou -

Honestly, I couldn't tell you. I put little faith in trends and threw that information out just for shits and giggles, because I know a few people do consider it. Sorry I can't help you.

 

[wilheim]

FWIW - The Ravens have committed 38 turnovers, which was tied for second-most in the NFL.

Anthony Wright in seven starts, he has turned the ball over 11 times (eight interceptions and three fumbles lost).

Wright is the worst-ranked quarterback in the AFC playoffs with a 72.3 rating. No other AFC quarterback has a rating below 85.9. Jeff Fisher will have his top rated Run D. ready for Lewis and force Wright to beat him. Doubt Wright can do it.


wil.

 

[drunkguy]

went 2-1, but my biggest play lost. Leaves me at:

2-1 -0.2 units

For Sunday:

Denver @ Indianapolis

Can't say I really like this game. If you put a gun to my head, i would take Indianapolis -3. BUt, I think this will be a pretty even game, and I am going to leave it alone.

Seattle @ Green Bay

Again, not real thrilled about this game. But a touchdown is a lot of points in a playoff game. I think Seattle has enough firepower to keep it close. Wait until gametime and take them at +8. Some 8s out there already.

Seattle +8

 

[drunkguy]

added another winner with Seattle:

3-1 +0.8 units

see everyone next week.

 

[drunkguy]

For Saturday:

Carolina +7.5. Good D will rattle Bulger and keep them close enough for the cover. Take a serious look at the UNDER as well.

Tennessee +6.5. New England will have a very hard time scoring. I will probably be playing TEN on the ML as well.

For Sunday:

GB +5.5

KC -3

Colts/Chiefs OVER 51

 

[hansenbros.]

drunk,

good work!!

gl

 

[drunkguy]

Thanks hansen

This week: 4-1 +2.9 units

Postseason: 7-2 +3.7 units

 

[raiders72001]

Nice work

 

[drunkguy]

thanks raiders

early plays for conference championship:

Indianapolis +3.5 -120 (2 units)
Indianapolis +150 (1 unit moneyline to win 1.5)

I fully expect Indianapolis to win this straight up, but will take the points for a little insurance. I am grabbing it now because I expect the line to close at 3 (it is there at many places now).

And a future:

Indianapolis to win Superbowl +350 at SIA.
1 unit to win 3.5

You probably won't find a line this good anywhere else, but I am going to post it here anyway. Considering the current line of indy +150 for this weekend, this has the same value as parlaying Indy +150 this week with Indy -125 in the Superbowl. If Indy beats NE, they will be at least 3 point favorites in the superbowlk, meaning whoever they play should be about +135 on the ML, and Indy will be minimum -155. This is the only Superbowl future I see with value right now. Basically I am taking Indy this week at the prevailing line and buying them real cheap for the superbowl.

If you can't get this SIA line, I would maybe take it down as far as +325. Don't see too much value below that number.

 

[drunkguy]

Adding a couple more for the late game:

Philly -4

PHI/CAR over 36

Everyone seems to think this will be a close game. I see a double-digit Eagles win. Carolina is a bit too agressive at the line of scrimage, and against a good scrambler like McNabb you can end up giving a lot of big gains when he eludes the rush.

As far as the total, I would not be surprised to see the Eagles almost hit this number themselves.

 

[drunkguy]

real tough day for me. I guess that's why they call it gambling. If the NE/IND game were played again tomorrow, I would play it the same way. They had every chance to stay within the number

0-5 -6.6 total units

this year: 7-7 -2.9 units

I am taking a stance now and taking:

NE -6.5 (2 units)

Matchup greatly favors NE IMO. I may add to this play later, or even buyback if Carolina hits 7.5 (I expect it to get there at some point at the squarer shops)

I see the total opened at 37.5 and is moving to 38 at some books. I have no opinion on this line but lean to the over and may play it before game time.

 

[drunkguy]

Some food for thought about the defenses:

NE is 5-0 in the playoffs the past two years. In those games they have given up a total of 75 points (average of 15 per game). This includes games against the following potent offenses: two years ago, Pittsburgh, Oakland, and St Louis. This year, Tennessee and Indianapolis.

During the regular season, New England gave up an average of only 14.9 points per game, easily the best in the league (2nd was Dallas at 16.2/game). This was against the 9th ranked schedule in the league (according to Sagarin strength of schedule).

Carolina gave up an average of 19 pts/game during the regular season, enough to be ranked 10th, against a schedule ranked 14th toughest in the league.

 

[drunkguy]

Officially took:

Steven Davis 1st rush OVER 3.5 yards -105 (Bodog)

Look above for my reasoning. Is going from 4 to 3.5 worth 40 cents? Not sure. Probably not, actually.BVut, I do like having the benefit of the doubt on four...this is the kind of prop you can get screwed on because he may rush for 3.9 yards and NFL.com scores it as 3 rather than 4. So, for that reason alone, I will take the extra half yard.

Some other props I am looking at currently:

Carolina team total UNDER
A. Smith no rush TD -155
Will game every be tied after the first score YES -105
Will Brady throw a pick YES
Will their be a safety YES +700

 

[Slammy2002]

I love the A. Smith no TD's. Might have to jump on it. You're begging with the saftey prop though.

GL